WASHINGTON:
World oil demand will climb 1.47 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 86.65 mbpd in 2011, bolstered by strong growth among industrialised countries, the US Energy Information Administration said.
Although the rebound in oil demand will still be led by developing countries in 2010, richer nations should “begin to show significant oil demand growth in 2011 in response to improving economic conditions,” the EIA said.
The EIA projected economic growth in industrialised countries will more than double to 2.7 per cent in 2011 from 1.2 per cent in 2010.
In its new monthly energy forecast, the agency also said 2011 US oil demand would rise to 19.11 mbpd, up 216,000 bpd from 2010.
This report, which offered traders their first glimpse at the agency’s supply and demand forecasts for 2011, was slightly less bullish than the International Energy Agency’s global oil consumption outlook for next year released last month.
The IEA’s higher economic growth scenario of 3.2 per cent annually predicted world oil demand would reach 87.5 mbpd in 2011.
The EIA projected world gross domestic product would increase by 3.7 per cent in 2011.
At the same time, the EIA cut its forecast for global growth in petroleum consumption this year to a 1.08 mbpd increase from 2009. Last month the agency projected a 1.1 mbpd rise in world oil demand in 2010.
The EIA also lowered its outlook for US oil consumption in 2010. The agency said it now expects a 211,000 bpd rise in demand, down from the 270,000 bpd increase predicted in the previous report.
On the supply side, the EIA cut its forecast for the Organization of petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) crude oil production this year to 29.49 mbpd from its prior estimate of 29.59 mbpd.
Still, Opec may increase its market share of global oil supply in 2011 to 42 per cent because of expected slower growth in oil production from non-Opec countries, the report said.
The agency expects non-Opec output next year to fall to 50.57 mbpd.